🔮 Bitcoin at $100,000? Why prediction markets don’t believe it
Welcome to the Daily for Thursday, December 11, 2025 ☕️
Hello Cointribe! 🚀
Today is Thursday, December 11, 2025, and as every day from Tuesday to Saturday, we summarize the news from the last 24 hours that you shouldn’t miss!
But first…
✍️ Cartoon of the day:
A quick look at the market…
🌡 Weather:
🌧️ Rainy
24h crypto recap! ⏱
📚 Read2Earn gets a fresh new look
Read2Earn is back in a redesigned version.
Same principle: you read, you participate, you earn.
But now everything is clearer, faster and more motivating: a modernized interface, better-structured missions, simplified points tracking and a truly more fun experience.
If you liked the first version, you’ll love coming back.
And if you took a break, this is the perfect moment to jump in again — your rewards are waiting for you.
🏦 Major US banks adopt Bitcoin-backed loans, says Michael Saylor
Ten of the largest US banks, including Citibank, Bank of America, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, now offer loans collateralized with Bitcoin. These loans use Loan-to-Value ratios between 50% and 70% with interest rates of 4% to 6%. Some institutions, such as JPMorgan, reportedly launched multi-billion-dollar credit facilities backed by Bitcoin in 2025.
👉 Read the full article
🐘 Vitalik Buterin faces a drop in validator participation after Ethereum bug
Shortly after the activation of the Fusaka upgrade, a Prysm client bug reduced Ethereum validator participation to 74.7%, a 25% drop in voting power. According to Vitalik Buterin, a temporary loss of finality is not critical as long as no invalid block is accepted.
👉 Read the full article
⚡ OCC denounces “debanking” and warns US banks
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) released a report accusing several major banks of restricting banking access to certain sectors, including cryptocurrency businesses. Banks cited include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, with restrictions reportedly applied between 2020 and 2023. The OCC expressed its intent to hold banks accountable, though the report does not outline a clear legal basis for prosecution.
👉 Read the full article
📊 BlackRock transfers 2,196 BTC to Coinbase Prime in major Bitcoin move
BlackRock moved 2,196 BTC to Coinbase Prime on December 9, 2025, an amount exceeding $200 million at market value. The transfer comes as net outflows continue on IBIT, its flagship Bitcoin ETF.
👉 Read the full article
Crypto du jour : Hyperliquid (HYPE)
🧠 Innovation et valeur ajoutée
Hyperliquid propose une infrastructure de dérivés entièrement on-chain, capable d’exécuter des transactions à une vitesse proche des exchanges centralisés. Le protocole fonctionne sans intermédiaire grâce à une architecture optimisée pour des frais réduits et une profondeur de marché élevée.
Le réseau attire les traders qui recherchent un environnement fiable, transparent et rapide pour les contrats perpétuels. Hyperliquid intègre un carnet d’ordres on-chain, une approche rarement maîtrisée dans le Web3, offrant une réactivité comparable aux plateformes professionnelles tout en conservant la transparence du registre public.
💰 Le token
Le token HYPE intervient dans la gouvernance et les incitations. Les détenteurs participent aux décisions du protocole, notamment sur les paramètres liés au trading et les allocations de liquidité.
HYPE sert également à récompenser les utilisateurs actifs du réseau, en particulier ceux qui fournissent de la liquidité ou participent aux programmes d’incitation. La valeur du token dépend directement de l’activité sur les dérivés et du volume traité sur la plateforme.
📊 Performances en temps réel (CMC)
💵 Prix actuel : 23,58 €
📉 Variation 24 h : –3,97 %
💰 Capitalisation boursière : 7,94 B €
🏅 Rang sur CoinMarketCap : #13
🪙 Offre en circulation : 336,68 M HYPE
📊 Volume d’échange (24 h) : 306,64 M €
Bitcoin at $100,000? Why prediction markets don’t believe it
While many analysts continue to bet on Bitcoin hitting six figures by the end of the year, real-money prediction platforms are taking the opposite direction. Through live betting, they outline a much more cautious outlook for BTC’s future. Should we worry about the gap between market enthusiasm and quantified expectations?
What prediction markets reveal about Bitcoin
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket show probabilities below 35% that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before December 31, 2025. These estimates come from prediction markets where users stake money on future scenarios. Their strength lies in transparency: each bet is a real financial commitment, offering a quantified measure of collective sentiment.
Concretely, Kalshi assigns a 34% probability of Bitcoin crossing the symbolic $100,000 level, while Polymarket places it at 29%. These figures contrast sharply with the narratives of some analysts who still expect an acceleration in price in the coming months. BTC remains stuck below a technical resistance near $94,000, which it has yet to overcome.
Why are predictions so low despite market optimism?
The gap between media narratives and prediction markets can be explained by several factors. First, institutional buying momentum is slowing: companies that previously accumulated BTC are no longer doing so at the same pace. This reduced activity removes an important source of upward pressure.
Second, macroeconomic uncertainty plays a central role. The Federal Reserve’s monetary stance, still unclear for the coming quarters, creates a wait-and-see climate for risk assets, notably cryptocurrencies. In this environment, even expected catalysts — such as strategic purchases from firms like MicroStrategy — struggle to reignite momentum.
Finally, prediction markets measure real behavior from an engaged community. They do not rely on theoretical analysis but on money placed by participants. This realism makes them powerful tools for gauging market sentiment.
The probabilities shown by Kalshi and Polymarket do not rule out a $100,000 BTC, but they call for moderated expectations. They remind us that markets are often driven by collective emotions fueled by optimistic narratives. Against these narratives, prediction platforms offer a form of clarity rooted in financial commitment, making them increasingly relevant for understanding possible market trajectories.
