Bitwise Warns Bitcoin Is Trading at “Fire Sale” Levels
Welcome to the Daily for February 4, 2026. ☕️
Hello Cointribe! 🚀
Greetings, crypto crew! 👋 Here’s a quick digest of the crypto market for Wednesday, February 4, 2026, covering the most important moves and key news from the past 24 hours.
But first…
✍️ Cartoon of the day:
A quick look at the market…
🌡 Weather:
⛈️ Stormy
24h crypto recap! ⏱
⚠️ Physical Crypto Attacks Surge 75 % in 2026
Wrench attacks, where criminals physically coerce crypto holders to access wallets, jumped roughly 75 % globally in 2025–26. Experts warn that digital security alone isn’t enough, recommending splitting seed phrases, using decoy wallets, and avoiding sharing sensitive information. Investors face growing real-world risks and must adopt practical safeguards to prevent theft, as incidents continue rising across Europe, Asia, and North America.
👉 Read the article
📉 Solana Price Hits Potential Support Level
Solana fell to around $100, its lowest in months, prompting debate over whether this marks a technical support. Analysts note rebound potential through indicators like RSI and weekly supports, though resistance levels may cap gains. Traders watch closely as volatility remains high. The article highlights both the opportunities and risks, giving investors a clearer view of possible price action in the near term.
👉 Read the article
⚖️ BitRiver Founder Under House Arrest Amid Debt Claims
Igor Runets, founder of BitRiver, faces house arrest over suspected tax evasion while the company confronts large debt claims for undelivered equipment. Legal pressures and operational issues threaten BitRiver’s financial stability and future. The case highlights challenges in the crypto mining sector, showing how regulatory scrutiny, rising costs, and unsettled obligations create uncertainty for investors and stakeholders in a volatile market environment.
👉 Read the article
🤖 SpaceX Acquires xAI to Tackle AI Power Limits
SpaceX acquired Elon Musk’s AI firm xAI to address rising computing and energy needs of advanced AI. Musk highlighted Earth-based infrastructure limits and suggested space-linked solutions. The merger merges rocket launches with AI development, raising questions about strategy, costs, and implementation. Analysts watch closely as SpaceX aims to combine space technology with AI, exploring ways to scale intelligence beyond terrestrial power constraints in the future.
👉 Read the article
🏦 Stablecoins Spark Clash Between Coinbase and Banks
At the White House, crypto leaders, including Coinbase and Ripple, confronted major banks over rewarded stablecoins. Traditional banks warn these yields rival savings accounts and threaten financial stability, while crypto firms push for regulatory clarity to support innovation. Negotiations are tense as Washington seeks compromise to regulate U.S. crypto markets, balancing risk, investor protection, and technological growth.
👉 Read the article
₿ Crypto of the Day: Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin Slides, but Attention Remains Strong
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is trading near the $76,000 level, marking its lowest price since April. Despite this pullback, interest in Bitcoin has not faded. On the contrary, discussions across social media platforms suggest that market participants remain highly engaged, even as sentiment grows more cautious. Price weakness has shifted the tone of conversation, but it has not reduced Bitcoin’s visibility or relevance within the broader financial space.
Social Sentiment Paints a Cautious Picture
Data from Santiment shows that Bitcoin discussions differ notably depending on the platform, reflecting a mix of long-term conviction and short-term caution:
Reddit: Users are debating Bitcoin’s sharp price movements while questioning whether it remains a reliable long-term store of value, especially as institutional involvement continues to grow.
Telegram: Conversations are more tactical, with traders concentrating on fast-moving Bitcoin products and wallet-based trading services tied to platforms like major exchanges.
X: Much of the discussion has centered on large Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, which many see as a strong vote of confidence despite current market weakness.
At the same time, Santiment notes a shift in market psychology. Instead of asking when Bitcoin will rebound, traders are increasingly speculating on how far it could fall. Social mentions show growing focus on a $50,000–$59,000 price range, signaling fear, while fewer discussions reference upside targets near $90,000–$99,000.
ETFs, Volatility, and the Accumulation Debate
Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $561.89 million in inflows on Monday, followed by $332.05 million in outflows on Tuesday. While volatility remains high, some investors view this darker phase as an accumulation opportunity, awaiting broader financial or policy shifts that could change Bitcoin’s trajectory.
📊 Real-time Performance (CMC)
💵 Current Price: $76,365.48
📉 24h Change: -1.99%
💰 Market Capitalization: $1.52T
🏅 CoinMarketCap Rank: #1
🪙 Circulating Supply: 19.98M BTC
📊 Trading Volume (24h): $67.93B
🔥 Bitwise Warns Bitcoin Is Trading at “Fire Sale” Levels
📉 A Rare Valuation Signal Emerges
Bitwise has flagged what it describes as “fire sale” conditions for Bitcoin, pointing to valuation metrics that have historically appeared only during periods of extreme market stress. Rather than reacting to short-term price fluctuations, the firm focuses on longer-term on-chain indicators, which now suggest Bitcoin is trading well below its perceived fair value.
At the center of this assessment is the two-year MVRV Z-score, a metric comparing market value to realized value. This indicator has slipped below the −1 threshold, a zone typically associated with late-stage drawdowns or deep accumulation phases. In past cycles, Bitcoin has rarely remained at these levels for extended periods without eventually stabilizing.
🔍 Institutional Pressure Weighs on the Market
Despite these long-term signals, near-term conditions remain challenging. One of the biggest drags has been heavy outflows from Bitcoin investment products, including spot ETFs. Instead of acting as a steady source of demand, ETFs have seen persistent capital withdrawals, reflecting a broader pullback from institutional investors.
This dynamic has contributed to subdued price action. Rather than aggressive panic selling, the market appears stuck in a slow bleed, where selling pressure steadily outweighs demand. Bitwise interprets this as capitulation among weaker hands rather than a breakdown in Bitcoin’s structural outlook.
📌 Core Indicators Behind the “Fire Sale” Label
• Bitcoin’s two-year MVRV Z-score has dropped into historically extreme undervaluation territory
• ETF outflows have accelerated, signaling reduced institutional risk appetite
• Market sentiment indicators have fallen back to levels seen during prior crash phases
• Long-term valuation metrics diverge sharply from short-term price weakness
📊 Oversold Conditions Begin to Surface
Alongside valuation metrics, Bitwise highlights signs of technical exhaustion. Bitcoin’s daily RSI has slipped into deeply oversold territory, a condition that has frequently preceded short-term relief rallies in recent years. While this does not guarantee a reversal, it suggests that selling momentum may be approaching a limit.
Additionally, spot market data shows pockets of buying interest emerging on major exchanges. Unlike leveraged-driven moves, this activity appears more deliberate, hinting that some participants are beginning to position for longer-term outcomes rather than short-term trades.
🧠 A Market Under Stress, Not Broken
Bitwise’s assessment does not suggest that Bitcoin is immune to further volatility. Instead, it frames the current environment as one where fear has overtaken valuation, creating conditions that historically favor patient investors rather than reactive ones.
While sentiment remains fragile and institutional flows are still negative, the combination of extreme undervaluation, oversold technicals, and early signs of spot accumulation points to a market that may be closer to exhaustion than collapse. Whether this translates into immediate recovery or extended consolidation, Bitwise’s message is clear: Bitcoin is trading at levels rarely seen outside major opportunity zones.
