🔻 U.S. Government Shutdown: What scenario for Bitcoin?
Welcome to the Daily for Tuesday, September 30, 2025 ☕️
Hello Cointribe! 🚀
Today is Tuesday, September 30, 2025, and as every day from Tuesday to Saturday, we bring you a recap of the past 24 hours’ news you shouldn’t miss!
But first…
✍️ Cartoon of the day:
A quick look at the market…
🌡 Weather:
🌤️ Partly sunny
24h crypto recap! ⏱
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan creates a crypto fund with an investment in BNB
The government of Kazakhstan announces the creation of a state crypto fund, with an initial investment in BNB tokens. The initiative aims to support blockchain innovation and diversify national strategic reserves.
👉 Read the full article
🐳 MicroStrategy surpasses 640,000 BTC despite volatility
MicroStrategy announces the purchase of an additional 1,200 BTC for $144M, bringing its holdings to 640,152 BTC. The company now owns more than $74.5B in bitcoin at market value.
👉 Read the full article
🌍 SWIFT and Consensys test a blockchain for cross-border payments
SWIFT partners with Consensys to develop a private blockchain dedicated to international banking settlements. The pilot project is part of a strategy to reduce delays and costs of cross-border transactions.
👉 Read the full article
🕵️ Nick Szabo criticizes controversial Bitcoin Core update
Nick Szabo, a cypherpunk figure, posts a message on X after five years of silence to denounce the planned changes in Bitcoin Core v30. The controversy revolves around the OP_RETURN opcode, which allows up to 4 MB of data to be embedded in a transaction.
👉 Read the full article
📌 Crypto of the Day: Aave (AAVE)
Innovation and Added Value 🧠
Aave is a non-custodial DeFi protocol that enables users to lend and borrow cryptocurrencies without intermediaries. It relies on liquidity pools powered by smart contracts: lenders deposit assets to earn interest, while borrowers provide collateral to access funds.
The protocol’s major innovation lies in flash loans—instant, collateral-free loans that can be executed within a single transaction for purposes such as arbitrage or debt restructuring. Successive upgrades (v2, v3) have strengthened security, lowered fees, and improved multi-chain interoperability.
The Token 💰
The AAVE token plays a central role in the protocol’s governance and security. Holders participate in votes to steer strategic decisions (adding new assets, adjusting market parameters). AAVE is also used in the Safety Module, a decentralized reserve that covers potential losses in case of a protocol shortfall; in return, participants receive rewards.
The token also offers benefits to active users, such as fee discounts. With a maximum supply set at 16 million units, AAVE is characterized by programmed scarcity, which supports its incentive role and economic value.
Real-Time Performance 📊
💵 Current Price: 280.07 USD
📉 24h Change: −0.67%
💰 Market Cap: 4,514,209,851 USD
🏅 Rank on CoinMarketCap: #31
🪙 Circulating Supply: 15,248,646 AAVE
📊 Trading Volume (24h): 414,714,489 USD
U.S. Government Shutdown: What scenario for Bitcoin?
As the United States approaches a potential budget shutdown, financial markets are questioning the consequences for risk assets. Bitcoin, in particular, finds itself at a crossroads, caught between macroeconomic uncertainty and the resilience of the crypto market.
The U.S. shutdown, a catalyst for BTC volatility
The U.S. Congress has yet to adopt a temporary funding bill ahead of the deadline set for Tuesday midnight. A failure would trigger a partial suspension of government services, including those responsible for producing key economic data. Among them, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report—scheduled for this Friday—is a cornerstone for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
Deprived of this fundamental benchmark, investors would be forced to reassess their interest rate expectations in a climate of opacity. The crypto market, sensitive to such adjustments, could feel the impact. Bitcoin, viewed alternately as a speculative asset and a store of value, often fluctuates in response to macroeconomic announcements.
Two precedents help shed light on the current situation. In 2013, a 16-day shutdown coincided with a 14% rise in BTC. Conversely, the 35-day paralysis of 2018-2019 was accompanied by a 6% decline. These examples highlight that Bitcoin’s reaction depends above all on the market environment in which it takes place.
A current dynamic closer to 2013 than 2018?
The start of the fourth quarter comes with renewed optimism among crypto investors. Available data indicate sustained demand for Bitcoin, particularly from institutional players. BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, reinforcing the idea of a market geared toward accumulation.
This dynamic differs from the bearish context of 2018 and seems closer to that of 2013, when Bitcoin enjoyed growing enthusiasm despite economic uncertainty. In the event of a shutdown, the delay of economic data could paradoxically strengthen BTC’s positioning as an alternative asset.
The Federal Reserve, deprived of key indicators, could adopt a wait-and-see stance. This lack of visibility would heighten volatility in traditional markets and push some investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as decoupled from the traditional financial system.
The budget standoff in Washington thus represents a determining factor for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming weeks. If current demand holds, BTC could move counter to the prevailing nervousness. Conversely, a prolonged drop in market sentiment could slow this momentum, revealing the crypto ecosystem’s persistent sensitivity to macroeconomic variables.
